Democracia Activa

The elected President, Fernando Lugo, whose electoral platform is the Patriotic Alliance for Change, a group that brings together 10 parties and political movements among which is the traditional Authentic Liberal Radical Party, initiates the transitional period of his presidency with a high degree of legitimacy after having achieved a victory by 10 percentage points (some 170 thousand votes) over the official candidate Blanca Ovelar, and having achieved, up to now, certain tactical consensuses that will allow him to assume the Presidency in the context of a relatively stable scenario.

These consensuses have been reached mainly on two fronts: a) in party politics and b) the social/trade union sector. As far as the first is concerned, the consolidation and institutionalization of the political board of the PAC, which will apparently be a space to settle the differences between this multi-party association, is an initial sign of stability. In other spheres there are also indications of support for the future government by conservative political forces such as the UNACE, which is the political party of the currently retired General Lino Oviedo, and by congressmen belonging to the Beloved Fatherland Party, an association led by the businessman Pedro Fadul. In the case of UNACE, however, there is a higher affinity of interests between Lino Oviedo and the leadership of the National Republican Association, a political party organization in which the General initiated his political career and his meteoric process of economic accumulation. In the case of Beloved Fatherland, there is talk of possible agreements on specific matters in the Congress.

The party politics scenario is completed by the block of the National Republican Association (NRA), which is now the opposition and which continues the difficult management of a profound crisis that was made evident during the pre-electoral period, and which is characterized by the two internal political projects: on one hand there is the project led by the engineer Luis Castiglioni, a young leader of the hard right wing of the Colorado party oligarchy and close to the American project of economic liberalization for Latin America. On the other hand there is the project led by the current President of the Republic, until his defeat, which is identified with a conservative populist project within the Colorado Party. This bipolar situation within the party that has governed Paraguay for 61 years has declined into a progressive atomization along the lines of personal leaderships after the defeat, qualified by the principal bosses of the traditional party as “catastrophic”. The sector that, up to now, has managed to maintain relative cohesion is the Castiglionist sector, brought together by the figure of the Colorado Vanguard Movement, although it has still not reached a clear consensus on its main premise: the renewal of the Colorado Party authorities. The sector that has seen the deepest impact after the defeat has been the Nicanorist sector, identified with the Colorado Progressive Movement, which has broken up into at least two factions; one that responds to the Senator elect Juan Carlos Galaverna and another that maintains allegiance to Nicanor Duarte.

The Colorado Vanguard sector, even though it still does not constitute a hegemonic force within the structure of the Colorado Party, has already made public its willingness to contribute to stable governance during the next constitutional period. This can be understood as part of a tactic of distancing from the official Colorado line, although leaders of different parties of the Patriotic Alliance for Change confirm the progress on dialogue with the Vanguard sector in as much as a Congress that is favorable to the future government.

In this party politics scenario, which basically implies a mending of the political system, matters essential to the institutionality of the country are being negotiated, such as the complete renovation of the Supreme Court of Justice, the legitimacy of which has deteriorated due to its obvious partiality in favor of the hegemonic project of Nicanor Duarte during the period of government that is currently coming to its end. Also under negotiation is the changing of the three members of the Electoral Justice Tribunal and the possible political trial against the Attorney General of the Republic before the current period of government ends, once the new congressmen assume their positions on July 1st.

These matters are under debate in the context of a double tension; one between the official blocks of the Alliance and the Colorado Party, and another within the National Republican Association due to its process for the renewal of the power structure. In as much as the modifications to the Judicial System and the Public Ministry, Oviedism is identified as an ally of the Nicanorist sector, at least until August 15th, when Nicanor will lose his networks of influence over the magistrates, which could affect the juridical situation of the leader of UNACE, Lino Oviedo.

The other aspect that makes up the party politics scenario is the conformation of the future cabinet, which affects mainly the block of the Patriotic Alliance for Change and those sectors close to the President elect. In this way, the period immediately after the victory was marked by open disputes between the different sectors of the PAC, however the naming of some ministers and the refusal of the future President to establish a mechanism of patronage has provided for some calm. As far as public opinion, up to now, those people named have not received any serious criticism, which contributes to the legitimacy with which the new government will assume power.

In the past few weeks, the pragmatism factor has managed to confront those sectors that make up the Patriotic Alliance for Change. As it was expected in being faced with a radical change in the administration of the State, in the various sensitive areas such as health, education, land and economy, the pressure groups and formers of opinions have installed debates on the immediate and long-term actions that the government of the PAC should take. One of the matters that aroused the first contradiction in pragmatic terms within the Alliance, at least on the media stage, was the matter of the concentration of landed property and the land occupations by farmer’s organizations. This contradiction reflects the ideological variety present in the composition of the electoral platform that brought Fernando Lugo to victory on April 20th, which is represented on one hand by the Authentic Liberal Radical Party and on the other hand by the Tekojoja Popular Movement, the Movement towards Socialism Party and other socialist tendencies.

As far as the second scenario, the social/trade union sector, there is a situation of stable tension. On one hand are the agricultural producers and cattle-raisers unions, which have expressed their trust in the future government although at the same time display their uncertainty with regards to the President elect’s position on one key topic: private property. The corporate associations, up to now, have not expressed any disagreement with the naming of ministers for the Treasury and Industry and Commerce ministries, and the possibilities for foreign investment that are opening from the change of parties in the Government has produced a calm in this sector.

The fall of the Colorado Party leadership in the government has also awakened the optimism of several social sectors: professionals, farmers, workers in various areas and students, all of which initiated a series of actions, meetings and visitations with the future President in order to bring proposals for plans and programs oriented towards satisfying historically delayed demands closer to becoming a reality. This increment of the actions of the social sectors and the higher degree of visibility of their complaints are related to the social base that Fernando Lugo’s political process has sustained. These sectors see their playing a pro-active role in decision-making and the orientation of public policies as a real possibility.

The increment of the activities in the marginalized social sectors, faced with the preoccupation of the conservative trade unions that represent the traditional oligarchy sectors that control the means of production and the country’s material and symbolic reproduction through networks that transcend borders, shows the structural renewal implied by the victory achieved through the ballot boxes by the project of the Patriotic Alliance for Change, and points to the orientation that the new government will have.

As a general post-electoral summary, a strengthening of democratic institutions can be identified, mostly as far as the role of the Superior Tribunal of Electoral Justice is concerned, which in spite of the strong questioning of its partiality and lack of independence, guaranteed the legitimacy of the process. We must not, of course, lose sight of the large number of allegations of pre-electoral fraud, manipulation of electoral registers, the dispersion of voters and other cases of irregularities proven in the sphere of the STEJ. Just as we must assume the essential role that, this time, was filled by international observation to guarantee the transparency and legitimacy of the elections. Despite all this, the institutional balance is positive.

The other general element to highlight is the consolidation of democratic institutionality in as much as the party system, which is indicated in the almost immediate recognition of the PAC’s victory by all the party associations. This is different from other opportunities in which the juridification, generation of extra-judicial incidents and even post-electoral fraud were a constant.

These two last points have to do mainly with the wide margin with which the Alliance’s project won, but continues to be a show of force of the liberal-democratic system.

In summary, in Paraguay there has been a radical change in as much as control over the State apparatus (the fall of the Colorado Party) and a serious degree of modification of the structure of the political system, related among other factors with the new power relations in the Congress. And all of this was achieved through a transparent, legitimate electoral process with a high degree of popular participation (more than 65%). As such, this election has broken with the national political traditions of coups, fraud and oligarchic control of the government, legitimizing a democratic government system, the image of which had been greatly deteriorated (Until these recent elections, Paraguay was one of the countries with the highest rejection of and lowest valuation of democracy in the region), and a new stage in the so-called “transition” is initiated: that of alternation.

A contribution by Seeds for Democracy.
Marta Ferrara
Executive Director